Reader,

We're well into January and it's time to share with you my thoughts on our hyper local real estate market here in Boise and the Treasure Valley. Whether you're actively planning a move in 2026, or just keeping an eye on things, staying informed can make all the difference.

Jill normally writes this weekly newsletter, but today I'm here (it's Tony) to share with you what it means for Idaho buyers and sellers. If you're wondering how these market shifts affect your plans, or you're just looking for honest, local insight, reply to this email directly.

Remember, my wife Jill and I send Thrive in Boise newsletters sharing fun local happenings, inspiration for local ways to THRIVE in Boise, and a local real estate market update. Thanks for being here!

Save the date if you'd like to come to our February Coffee Chat. It will be on Tuesday, February 10th at 11:00am at Nazca Coffee in Meridian. If you are looking for community, come join us!

My take on the Boise housing market

I have 3 things to cover today about the housing market. What Jill and I have been seeing here in the Boise and Treasure Valley real estate market, interest rates, and my thoughts on the national headlines going around about the state of our housing market in the US.

Local Boise Real Estate Market Thoughts:

December showed some changes in the Boise market. One of the big changes was an increase in new construction sales. In November, 33% of homes sold were new homes and this number increased to 41% of homes sold in December. As a proportion of overall monthly sales, December had the highest level of new homes sales out of any other month in 2025.

Now looking at housing inventory overall, only 22% of homes in inventory were added in December. This smaller addition of fresh options resulted in a decline in overall inventory levels from November to December, lowering the months’ supply of inventory to 2.2. That means we are now in the beginning of a buyers market, as we need at least 3 months supply to say we are in a balanced market.

Interest Rates:

Interest rates dropped last week to the lowest they have been in 3 years. Jill touched on this in last week's email. They went down to 6.01% for conventional, and 5.75% for FHA and VA, which was the lowest they've been since January of 2023. This week they are up slightly, as they do fluctuate. Yet, this has now brought more buyers into the market here in the Boise and Treasure Valley area in January.

With the new year here, and weekly changes in our housing market and interest rates, this is where good guidance really matters. That's where Jill and I come in. If you're looking to buy a home in January or February, reach out to us.

National Headlines about the US Housing Market:

There's been a few housing headlines in the news that I want to touch on.

Institutional Investor Ban:

Institutional investors like Blackstone (not the flat top griddle maker) are thought by many to be the cause of our housing woes, and should be ‘banned from purchasing homes’. But in reality, Blackstone accounts for less than 1% of housing units in-general. Most investors in single-family homes are ‘mom and pop’ investors that hold 1-9 units total.

These investors aren’t the evil, soulless, bloodsuckers of Wall Street. They are your parents, aunts, uncles, and friends, that have extra houses they’re renting to their kids, or even to your kids. Or, they might be you looking to invest in a rental property to help build up your portfolio.

Trump Proposing 401k Withdrawal to Buy a Home:

Another recent idea by the Trump administration is allowing a ‘401k withdrawal to buy a house’. Sounds great, especially if you have a large 401k. Not so fast though, says just about everyone with a stake, or has the job of regulating 401k’s and other tax-deferred products.

While you currently have the ability to take out loans or withdrawals from your 401k with fees and penalties, it would come down to the regulators and custodians of those accounts and if those fees could be waived. Even if it did become a law, custodians wouldn’t be required to allow these distributions, and regulators are spread through various levels of federal and state organizations as well as the private banking sector.

All-in-all 401k loans/withdrawals without a penalty are a nice idea, kind of like portable mortgages or 50-year mortgages, like I wrote about last month.

But when it comes down to making these products work in the complex financial and regulatory system, just remember, we are needing an act of Congress and specific recommendations from heads of multiple departments and agencies just to remove food coloring from our food supply.

Have you seen any of these headlines or social media posts? If so, I’d love to get your thoughts on why this could or couldn’t happen.

The Bottom Line

Look, here's what matters most: whether you're thinking about buying your first home, selling to upgrade, or exploring investment properties, the decisions you make now will shape your financial picture for years to come.

Jill and I don't just follow the national headlines, we live and breathe this local market every single day. We know which neighborhoods are moving fast, where builders are offering the best incentives, and how to position your offer (or your listing) to win in today's conditions.

If you're even remotely considering a move in 2026, let's talk now. The buyers and sellers who get ahead of the market are the ones who reach out early, ask questions, and make informed decisions before they're under pressure.

Call or text me directly at 208-314-4193, or just reply to this email.

Have a great week,

Tony (& Jill) Greising-Murschel

Thrive In Boise
Boise Premier Real Estate
208-314-4193
Founder of www.ThriveInBoise.com